Weather Forecast Germany

IMF Says Germany Will Enjoy 'Healthy' Economic Growth This Year

July 12 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund increased its 2011 growth forecast for Germany, citing an "exceptionally" robust development at the beginning of the year.

The Washington-based lender projects Europe's largest economy to expand 3.2 percent this year instead of the 2.5 percent forecast in April. Still, "growth is expected to slow as the fiscal consolidation takes hold, the output gap closes, and world trade growth decelerates," it said. For 2012, the IMF cut its forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2 percent.

German business confidence unexpectedly improved in June, suggesting companies are confident they can weather Europe's debt crisis. Rising exports helped the economy expand 1.5 percent in the first quarter, the fastest in almost a year. The Bundesbank said last month that while growth is likely to be "considerably weaker" in the three months through June, this "should not be interpreted as an economic slowdown."

Germany "is now in a position that most advanced countries only dream about," Juha Kahkonen, deputy director of the fund's European department, said on a conference call today.

While Germany "escaped the crisis with little permanent damage, its long-term growth prospects remain low," with a growth potential of 1.25 percent, the IMF said. The fund also said that Germany may still be able to reduce its budget deficit to below 3 percent of gross domestic product this year.

"The goal of the national fiscal rule, which targets a close-to-zero structural fiscal balance at the federal level by 2016, is also within reach," the report said.

"Exposure of German banks to Greece, Ireland and Portugal is only about 4 percent of GDP and about 1.5 percent of the size of the banking sector," Kahkonen said. "Numbers show that the direct impact of contagion from the three periphery countries is small."

The report is based on discussions between IMF executives and German officials and was completed on July 6. The European Central Bank the following day increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percent to 1.5 percent.

Day 160 - Brejning, Denmark

Next morning we awoke to pouring rain.  I have never been so glad to be in a tiny cabin in my life!  It would have been an absolute nightmare to wake up in the tent and try to pack up camp in the driving rain.  It really was quite relentless and even packing things into the car was difficult (for Steve!) I had other jobs to do as part of renting the cabin such as sweeping, mopping and cleaning – I’m still in shock over that. I can’t believe they expect people to clean a campground cabin before they leave it and when they have only slept in it for one night.  In Asia I would have just done someone out of a job!

Anyway, the kids watched tv, Steve packed the car and I cleaned and we hoped for the rain to ease. It did a little and we were able to leave the cabin and drive north to Brejning Strand to see my old Rotary Exchange student friend Gitte and her family.

We only had about 100 kms to drive today so we weren’t in a hurry.  It rained the entire way and when we got to the nearby city of Vejle we decided to check out the local mall with 2 hours of free undercover parking.  We treated the boys to Burger King; a change from eating Swedish polkabrod (circular bread) and cheese, ham or jam.  Steve and I bought some 10 kr sandwiches from the Kvickly supermarket.  After our two hours of free parking was up we left the mall and drove to the small town of Brejning, close to Gitte’s house and had a tour of the local woods and water. It continued to rain the whole time we drove.

Gitte and Anders, with their 3 little children Sophia 4, Julius 3 and Johannes 2 and live-in super nanny Yanna, live in a fantastic house (photo to come soon … here it is) overlooking the Vejle Fjord. This was the best photo I could get sitting in the car as it poured with rain!

What a great place to live.  We sent up camp in the children’s playroom for the night; certainly not good weather for camping in a tent. Our boys enjoyed sitting in their ‘Fatboy’ bean bags and watching TV. Gitte had bought some traditional Danish pastries for afternoon tea and we caught up on 18 years; apart from Facebook in recent years we hadn’t kept in touch at all.  When Anders came home from work we got ourselves ready to drive the short distance to the marina; if it wasn’t raining we could have easily strolled down to the restaurant in 5 minutes.

We were treated to a delicious dinner with Gitte, Anders and the two ‘big’ kids.  We got a set menu that included lobster soup or licorice and raspberry icecream with fruit; and lamb cutlet and vegetables; with plenty of red wine to wash it down.  Yum!  By far one of the nicest meals we have had in our travels. Tack!  The boys enjoyed sausages and chips and an icecream for dessert.

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